Risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy in border countries of South America - Brazil and Argentina.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to analyze the spatial association and relative risk (RR) of leprosy cases diagnosed in southern Brazil and in the Argentinean province of Misiones during 2010 to 2016. METHODS: This ecological-type epidemiological study analyzed data from the Health Ministries of both countries. The analysis included frequency measures, spatial autocorrelation, RR cluster analysis and map construction. RESULTS: A hyperendemic occurrence was identified in all study regions, in the state of Paraná 71.2% of the municipalities were hyperendemic and in Misiones, Argentina 41.2%. The GI* statistical analysis showed clusters of high incidence rates in the state of Paraná and low-risk clusters in much of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, both in Brazil. The analysis indicated an area with RR equal to 3.87 - (p < .0001) when considering the entire territory and an RR of 2.80 - (p < .0001) excluding the state of Paraná, with the number of departments of Misiones, Argentina included in the risk clusters increasing significantly. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate a high probability of similar illness in adjacent areas, according to their relative position in space, as the occurrence of the disease is influenced by neighboring clusters.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen's Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.

This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.

Leprosy in urban space, areas of risk for disability and worsening of this health condition in Foz Do Iguaçu, the border region between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a public health problem and a challenge for endemic countries, especially in their border regions where there are intense migration flows. The study aimed to analyse the dynamics of leprosy, in order to identify areas of risk for the occurrence of the disease and disability and places where this health condition is worsening. METHOD: This ecological study considered the new cases of leprosy reported in the municipality of Foz do Iguaçu from 2003 to 2015. Spatial and spatial-temporal scan statistics were used to identify the risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy, as well as the Getis-Ord Gi and Getis-Ord Gi* methods. Areas of risk for disabilities were identified by the scan statistic and kernel density estimation. RESULTS: A total of 840 cases were reported, of which 179 (21.3%) presented Grade 1 or 2 disabilities at the time of diagnosis. Leprosy risk areas were concentrated in the Southern, Eastern and Northeastern Health Districts of the municipality. The cases of Grade 2 disability were observed with higher intensity in regions characterized by high population density and poverty. CONCLUSION: The results of the study have revealed changes in the pattern of areas at risk of leprosy according to the investigated periods. In addition, it was possible to verify disabilities as a condition present in the investigated cases, or that may be related to the late diagnosis of the disease. In the areas of risk identified, patients have reported worse physical disability after diagnostic confirmation, or indicate inadequate clinical examination, reinforcing the need for structuring leprosy control services in a qualified manner.

Hanseníase em países fronteiriços na américa do sul: um estudo ecológico / Lepra en los territories fronterizos de sudamérica: estudio ecológico / Leprosy in border countries in south america: an ecological study

RESUMO Objetivo: caracterizar o perfil clínico epidemiológico e a distribuição espacial da incidência da hanseníase em territórios fronteiriços da América do Sul. Método: trata-se de um estudo ecológico. O estudo compreendeu a Província de Misiones na Argentina e a Região Sul do Brasil. A população foi composta por 10.319 casos novos de hanseníase, diagnosticados entre 2010 e 2016. Resultados: o estado do Paraná foi o mais endêmico, representando 70,2% (n=7,247) dos casos. Houve predomínio da classificação operacional multibacilar (79,8%, n=8.233) e Grau 0 de incapacidade física (50,6%, n=5.223). Em Misiones 18,9% utilizaram esquema de tratamento substitutivo. No período, notou-se uma situação hiperendêmica em 780 (65,5%) dos municípios/ departamentos estudados. Conclusão: o estudo mostrou que as regiões estudadas apresentam alta endemicidade, transmissão ativa e diagnóstico tardio da hanseníase. Essas tendências entrelaçadas à força de morbidade e de transmissão recente e persistente da doença, ampliam a relevância da hanseníase como problema de saúde pública na região.

RESUMEN Objetivo: caracterizar el perfil clínico epidemiológico y la distribución espacial de la incidencia de la lepra en los territorios fronterizos de Sudamérica. Metodología: se trata de un estudio ecológico. El estudio incluyó la Provincia de Misiones en Argentina y la Región Sur de Brasil. La población estaba compuesta por 10.319 nuevos casos de lepra diagnosticados entre 2010 y 2016. Resultados: el estado de Paraná fue el más endémico, representando el 70,2% (n=7.247) de los casos. Predominaron la clasificación operacional multibacilar (79,8%, n=8.233) y el Grado 0 de discapacidad física (50,6%, n=5.223). En Misiones, el 18,9% utilizó un régimen de tratamiento de sustitución. En el periodo se observó una situación hiperendémica en 780 (65,5%) de las ciudades/departamentos estudiados. Conclusión: El estudio mostró que las regiones estudiadas tienen alta endemicidad, transmisión activa y diagnóstico tardío de la lepra. Estas tendencias entrelazadas en cuanto a la fuerza de la morbilidad y la transmisión reciente y persistente de la enfermedad aumentan la importancia de la lepra como un problema de salud pública en la región.

ABSTRACT Objective: to characterize the epidemiological clinical profile and spatial distribution of the incidence of leprosy in border territories of South America. Method: this is an ecological study. The study included the Province of Misiones in Argentina and the Southern Region of Brazil. The population consisted of 10,319 new leprosy cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2016. Results: the state of Paraná was the most endemic, representing 70.2% (n=7.247) of the cases. There was a predominance of multibacillary operational classification (79.8%, n=8,233) and Grade 0 of physical disability (50.6%, n=5,223). In Misiones, 18.9% used a substitution treatment regimen. In the period, a hyperendemic situation was observed in 780 (65.5%) of the studied cities/departments. Conclusion: the study revealed that the regions studied have high endemicity, active transmission and late diagnosis of leprosy. These intertwined trends in the strength of morbidity and recent and persistent transmission of the disease increase the relevance of leprosy as a public health problem in the region.

Social determinants, their relationship with leprosy risk and temporal trends in a tri-border region in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has adopted a national health system. This causes differences in access to health among Latin American countries and induces noticeable migration to Brazilian regions to seek healthcare. This phenomenon has led to difficulties in the control and elimination of diseases related to poverty, such as leprosy. The aim of this study was to evaluate social determinants and their relationship with the risk of leprosy, as well as to examine the temporal trend of its occurrence in a Brazilian municipality located on the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. METHODS: This ecological study investigated newly-diagnosed cases of leprosy between 2003 and 2015. Exploratory analysis of the data was performed through descriptive statistics. For spatial analysis, geocoding of the data was performed using spatial scan statistic techniques to obtain the Relative Risk (RR) for each census tract, with their respective 95% confidence intervals calculated. The Bivariate Moran I test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to analyze the spatial relationships of social determinants and leprosy risk. The temporal trend of the annual coefficient of new cases was obtained through the Prais-Winsten regression. A standard error of 5% was considered statistically significant (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Of the 840 new cases identified in the study, there was a predominance of females (n = 427, 50.8%), of white race/color (n = 685, 81.6%), age range 15 to 59 years (n = 624, 74.3%), and incomplete elementary education (n = 504, 60.0%). The results obtained from multivariate analysis revealed that the proportion of households with monthly nominal household income per capita greater than 1 minimum wage (ß = 0.025, p = 0.036) and people of brown race (ß = -0.101, p = 0.024) were statistically-significantly associated with risk of illness due to leprosy. These results also confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy. CONCLUSION: The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study's highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region.